June 2014 - League of Stories

Riot’s Predictions: NA LCS Summer Split Week 5

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This week LCS regions have swapped schedules. This won’t be a problem, but I need to get an NA prediction up before they start racking up points! Welcome to another week of Riot’s Predictions!

TEAMS

Thursday:

Curse vs Cloud9 = Curse… aren’t scheduled to win a game this week. Cloud9 have been consistently good, and CLG are in a crazy upward spiral, building hype around Rush Hour.

TSM vs Dignitas = Despite TSM sitting tied for 4th place Riot still predicts that TSM will beat tied-for-first Dignitas. TSM picked up a win last week against Cloud9 and Riot is expecting them to maintain that giant toppling power. This will be one of the best match-ups to see, as this places two of the top mids in NA against one another in Bjergsen and Shiphtur (only XiaoWeiXiao has more fantasy points).

LMQ vs CLG = LMQ predicted to win in another clash of titans. Doublelift has the highest fantasy points overall of any NA ADC. However, XiaoWeiXiao isn’t joking around in mid lane. He’s wrecking the best there are and stacking fantasy points while doing it.

EG vs Complexity = No one cares. Battle of the bottom of the bracket. Riot predicted EG to take this one. EG, backed by their new jungler, is showing a lot of promise. If they can get accustomed to playing with one another and build on their foundation they could become a powerhouse. For now they’ll have to settle with beating Complexity to not be last place anymore.

Friday:

Dignitas vs Complexity = Dignitas pick up their win this week vs the last place team. Poor Complexity doesn’t have enough going for them. They are struggling to stick wins, but have had a history of upsetting teams that didn’t come prepared.

TSM vs EG = TSM thinks they are walking into a freebie vs EG, but Helios might change this prediction around. TSM expected to win, but I wouldn’t call this game a stomp.

Curse vs CLG = Curse steal a win against CLG. Curse did just top LMQ, which shocked the world. Riot didn’t predict that one! Blue build Kass too good. Four Randuins works vs AD comp. CLG just won’t have an answer for Voyboy and once he gets ahead he knows how to twist the dagger deeper.

Cloud9 vs LMQ = Cloud9 look to beat the Chinese powerhouse for the second time in three weeks. Hai is extremely outclassed in the mid lane, but hopes to hold his own (probably on Kha’Zix) against the top fantasy mid in the NA LCS.

SUMMARY

Riot is using a bit of historical data to think that Cloud9 will beat LMQ, calling some easy matches, but also predicting an upset. It will be fun to watch, so don’t miss LCS this week! Reminder that NA LCS starts on Thursday at 1:00 PM!

Riot’s Predictions: EU LCS Summer Split Week 5 – Players

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This is a continuation of the previous article discussing Riot’s predictions regarding the EU LCS. In this edition I’ll be covering Riot’s predicted stats, as well as what the players actually finished with. For now, you’ll see the predictions based on a two-game split week. Later, I’ll return and populate the actual values for next week’s comparison.

Teams

Alliance:

Nyph

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	2	6	16	0	0	57	26
Actual Values	0	4	32	2	0	93	50.93

Shook

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	6	6	14	0	0	269	33
Actual Values	5	6	25	2	0	265	51.15

Wickd

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	5	4	12	0	0	556	32
Actual Values	7	7	23	1	0	575	52.75

Tabzz

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	8	3	12	0	0	703	40
Actual Values	18	4	12	1	0	770	61.70

Froggen

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	8	4	12	0	0	629	38
Actual Values	11	7	22	1	0	726	60.76

Copenhagen Wolves:

Airwaks

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	5	7	13	0	0	269	29
Actual Values							42.94

Youngbuck

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	4	5	11	0	0	544	27
Actual Values							49.52

Unlimited

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	2	7	14	0	0	56	22
Actual Values							30.88

Fnatic:

sOAZ

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	5	4	14	0	0	576	35
Actual Values	7	6	8	0	0	746	30.46

Cyanide

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	6	6	14	0	0	282	33
Actual Values	4	11	13	0	0	234	24.34

Rekkles

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	8	4	12	0	0	654	39
Actual Values	8	1	10	0	0	901	39.51

xPeke

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	8	5	12	0	0	635	38
Actual Values	6	7	13	0	0	879	36.79

Yellowstar

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	3	5	18	1	0	63	33
Actual Values	0	4	17	1	0	88	26.38

Gambit Gaming:

Darien

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	4	5	11	0	0	554	28
Actual Values							0

Edward

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	2	7	14	0	0	50	22
Actual Values							0

Millenium:

Creaton

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	7	5	11	0	0	601	34
Actual Values	10	5	11	1	0	831	44.31

Kev1n

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	4	5	11	0	0	569	28
Actual Values	4	5	14	1	0	694	35.44

Kerp

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	7	6	10	0	0	607	32
Actual Values	9	6	8	0	0	705	34.05

KottenX

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	5	7	12	0	0	281	27
Actual Values	3	5	17	1	0	337	34.37

Roccat:

Celaver

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	7	4	10	0	0	620	33
Actual Values							51.85

Vander

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	2	6	17	0	0	60	27
Actual Values	1	4	17	1	0	123	28.73

Xaxus

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	4	5	11	0	0	527	27
Actual Values							33.34

SK Gaming:

Candy Panda

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	7	4	10	0	0	654	34
Actual Values	7	1	9	0	0	629	35.29

Fredy122

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	4	5	10	0	0	524	26
Actual Values	1	4	13	1	0	536	26.86

Jesiz

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	8	5	9	0	0	601	33
Actual Values	7	4	9	0	2	571	33.21

Supa Hot Crew:

Mr Rallez

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	7	4	10	0	0	650	34
Actual Values	6	3	12	1	0	631	36.81

Impaler

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	5	7	12	0	0	269	27
Actual Values	2	9	19	1	0	216	32.16

Selfie

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	8	5	10	0	0	610	35
Actual Values	2	9	12	1	0	649	25.99

WeWillFailer

	Kills	Deaths	Assists	10+	Multi	CS	Total
Predicted Values	2	6	16	0	0	58	26
Actual Values							0

Riot’s Predictions: EU LCS Summer Split Week 5

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Last week’s predictions were eerily accurate. Riot predicted a 1-7 Roccat club to go 2-0 with matches against Copenhagen Wolves and Supa Hot Crew. Roccat shocked the world (sans Riot) when they posted their perfect record this week. Because of these amazing predictions I can’t help but do another week’s worth of predictions, this one slightly more in-depth to try to dive deeper into individual player stats. Welcome to another week of Riot’s Predictions!

TEAMS

Saturday:

SK vs Alliance = Alliance will win. This will be the harder of Alliance’s two match-ups this week, so expect to see 2-3 deaths on Wickd, and 1-2 on Tabzz. However, closer game = longer game, so count on high fantasy points. Alliance will be getting first blood, plus at least 6 turrets (5 needed to win).

SHC vs Copenhagen Wolves = Supa Hot Crew will take this one. Wolves are in a down-ward spiral and are estimated to drop both of their games this week. This might be when Mr Rallez dumps in for some of his 650 predicted CS this week.

Millenium vs Roccat = Millenium beat Roccat this week. Millenium had looked solid all split and even more so last week when they went 2-0. We’re not expecting another 2-0 week from them, but expect to see Jesiz go at least 4-2-6.

Gambit vs Fnatic = Fnatic aren’t losing a game this week, so Gambit won’t change that. Gambit has been struggling, Fnatic has been gaining better footing. sOAZ has been climbing each week (31, 39, 42) in points. xPeke keeps breaking fantasy records. If you have a Fnatic player, get them on your list this week. It is predicted to be a good day to be a Fnatic!

Sunday:

Roccat vs Gambit = Bottom of the bracket has to go to a team, and Roccat are slated to win this one. Poor Gambit just can’t catch a break. Their estimated points are plummeting until they start putting up numbers or winning games. Losing in a stomp is a good way to net negative numbers, which is Edward’s forte.

SK vs SHC = SK can win this game. They opened the split in first place, and SHC is just breaking even. I wouldn’t count SHC completely out, Mr Rallez can pack fantasy points in, even when they lose. SK is going to cash in some points this game.

Fnatic vs Millenium = Fnatic continue their dominant week. Again, this could turn out to be a close game, which results in a longer game, which results in more fantasy points. xPeke is predicted at 38 points on the week, and he did more than that in one game last week. He has been a fantasy all star and he’s showing no signs of slowing.

Alliance vs Copenhagen Wolves = Alliance continues their 2-0 week. Wolves had a roster swap last week and will be trying to get their mojo back. Hopefully they can prolong a game against Alliance for fantasy’s sake, but doesn’t count on it. Alliance has changed from their old EG ways and are ripping through games these days, which scares fantasy owners!

SUMMARY

I think Riot’s predictions are a bit conservative this week. No one has managed to maintain xPeke, even when his team loses, but his fantasy point estimate is still very low.

Riot’s Predictions: NA LCS Summer Split Week 4

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Last week I noticed that in the Fantasy LCS weekly predictions different teams were predicted to win games. By knowing that coming match-ups, and relying on the fact that each match would need a winner, I was able to deduce that Riot predicted which team would lose in each match-up. I did the same for the NA LCS Summer Split week 4, and here are the predictions.

Cloud9 and Evil Freaking Geniuses are predicted to go 2-0 in their matches this week. Cloud9 is set to beat TSM and Dignitas. Both of those games should be fun, close matches. Cloud9 has a better record against teams above .500 than other top teams, but they have struggled against teams on the lower end of the bracket. With two games against teams at or above .500 expect Cloud9 to post good fantasy numbers this week, doing what it takes to “drag” games out and win.

Evil Geniuses play against LMQ and CLG this week. LMQ seems like they would match up well against EG, but as EG gets more experience they seem to be meshing well, and maybe Riot knows something that we don’t that is affecting their prediction. CLG has been getting better and better. Dexter is still improving (54.17, 25.07, 28.20 week by week) in fantasy. Aphrolift are still winning lane and helping to win the game. The current 4v0 start meta is really benefitting the late game potential of that bot lane, letting Double farm safely, and letting Aphro make plays with the cow.

TSM is predicted to beat Complexity. LMQ is expected to beat Curse. Dignitas is slated to beat Curse, and CLG will probably hand it to Complexity.

Curse and Complexity both have zero wins to look forward to this weekend. Might be a good week to bench Voyboy. Just be happy Riot predicted eight winners this week rather than the seven they predicted last week.

Riot’s Predictions: EU LCS Summer Split Week 4

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Last week I noticed that in the Fantasy LCS weekly predictions different teams were predicted to win games. By knowing that coming match-ups, and relying on the fact that each match would need a winner, I was able to deduce that Riot predicted which team would lose in each match-up. I did the same for the EU LCS Summer Split week 4, and here are the predictions.

SK and Roccat will both go 2-0 this week. Supa Hot Crew, Alliance, Fnatic, and Millenium will each end the week with a win apiece, and Gambit Gaming and Copenhagen Wolves should end up with no wins.

Any time it has teams going 2-0 or 0-2 I can just immediately give their two opponents a loss or a win, depending Riot’s prediction. Then the 1-1 teams are decided via process of elimination.

Historically speaking close games result in more points for fantasy owners. If some of the 2-0 teams this week stomp their opponents don’t expect to see as many fantasy points this week.